Unlike other sites already crippled in Natanz or Isfahan, Fordow is a different beast entirely. Hidden under layers of rock and reinforced concrete, its location was chosen specifically to survive even the most advanced airstrikes.
“Taking out Fordow isn’t just about precision — it’s about physics,” says Jonathan Ruhe, Director of Foreign Policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA). “It’s buried so deep that even Israel’s best bunker busters might not be enough.”
Ruhe explains that standard bunker-busting munitions rely on gravity, force, and advanced explosives to punch through terrain before detonating underground. Israel possesses 2,000- and 5,000-pound bunker busters, but only the U.S. owns the mother of them all: the 30,000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP).
Developed under President George W. Bush, the MOP was designed for one reason — to penetrate and obliterate targets just like Fordow.
How Deep is Too Deep?
Official estimates vary. Some say Fordow sits 60 to 90 meters underground. Others, like IAEA Director Rafael Grossi, recently told The Financial Times the complex may descend as far as 800 meters — an assertion that raised eyebrows among defense analysts. Was Grossi simply issuing a warning to temper military ambitions?
Ruhe thinks so: “He’s possibly saying, ‘Don’t even try it — military action won’t work.’ But the truth is, it still might.”
The Only Weapon That Can Do the Job
The GBU-57 MOP is believed to be able to punch through 200 feet of reinforced earth and stone. But Fordow’s challenge isn’t just depth — it’s angle, architecture, and defense systems.
To breach it, the U.S. would likely deploy a B-2 Spirit stealth bomber, dropping MOPs in sequence using a tactic known as burrowing — where one bomb blasts a path, and the next digs deeper.
But could Israel borrow or replicate that tactic?
Ruhe is blunt: “There is a 0.0% chance the U.S. loans a B-2 to anyone. Training an Israeli pilot to fly it would take months, maybe longer. It’s not happening.”
Can Israel Act Alone?
Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, puts it plainly: “Destroying Fordow from the air is a job only the United States can do.”
Still, Israel has a history of exceeding expectations with limited tools. Ruhe suggests that while the MOP would offer a clean solution, Israel might opt for a creative alternative: using F-15s escorted by F-35s to deliver multiple 5,000-pound bunker busters in rapid succession — essentially attempting their own version of the burrowing method.
A long shot? Maybe. But for a country that took out Osirak in 1981 and launched cyberattacks that paralyzed Natanz, it’s not unthinkable.
Ruhe also floats a more cinematic scenario: an elite commando raid, breaching the site from within. It’s bold — maybe even suicidal — but not outside the realm of Israeli military history.
What Would ‘Success’ Even Look Like?
This is where Israeli and U.S. perspectives may diverge.
“The U.S. wants obliteration,” Ruhe explains. “Israel might be satisfied just setting the program back a year or more.”
Disrupting operations, damaging power systems, or making the air unbreathable for centrifuges — any of these outcomes would delay Iran’s timeline. Not a knockout, but a strategic wound.
A Silent, Ongoing Operation
Despite Fordow’s resilience, Israel has already achieved major wins: the Natanz and Isfahan facilities — both vital to Iran’s fuel cycle — have been successfully neutralized in recent operations.
But Fordow remains, a symbol of Iran’s nuclear ambitions — and the biggest unanswered question in a shadow war that may be closer to boiling over than anyone wants to admit.
“It’s not the endgame,” Ruhe warns, “but if we want to prevent a nuclear Iran, Fordow must be dealt with. And soon.”