Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville believes President Donald Trump is heading for a political reckoning — and soon.
“I’m very, very, very confident that this administration is gonna be widely rejected in the elections coming up,” Carville told SiriusXM host Dan Abrams on Thursday. “And they’re gonna be particularly widely rejected in the elections in 2026.”
Carville doubled down on a prediction he made in February — that Trump’s administration would face a “massive collapse” in public opinion within 30 days. He now claims that collapse is unfolding in real time.
“I think it’s collapsing now,” Carville said, citing Trump’s slipping approval numbers and growing dissatisfaction with the economy. “It is collapsing right in front of you.”
Abrams pushed back, noting poll averages from The New York Times and RealClearPolitics showing Trump’s approval hovering around 44–45.8%, with disapproval between 51.4–53%. “That’s not a collapse,” Abrams argued. “That’s basically a little bit above where he was.”
But Carville pointed to real-world election results as more telling than polling.
“I see something completely different,” he replied, highlighting Democratic overperformance in special elections this year. “We’re running away with every election we’ve had.”
He predicted Democrats would “run away” with gubernatorial races in Virginia and win in New Jersey this fall.
According to NBC News, Democrats outperformed Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 numbers by an average of 11.5% in 16 special elections earlier this year. In June, they beat expectations in five of six contests, data journalist G. Elliott Morris reported.
Morris also noted Democrats are currently leading Republicans by 2.6% in generic ballot polls — a stronger-than-usual position for a party in power at this point in the cycle.
CNN data analyst Harry Enten added that Trump remains deeply unpopular. “If we are comparing him to other presidents at this point in their presidencies, he is the second lowest on record — only behind himself,” Enten said. “If we’re comparing him to other second terms, he’s certainly in the bottom… aside from Richard Nixon, who was in a worse position.”