Trump Surges in New Poll — But Broader Data Tells a More Complicated Story
Former President Donald Trump is seeing a boost in his approval ratings according to a new poll from the Trafalgar Group, which shows him with 53.7% approval and 45.6% disapproval. The survey, conducted from May 30 to June 1, polled 1,098 likely voters and reflects a trend of increasing support since his return to office.
Trafalgar Group, known for its unique methodology that seeks to capture “shy” conservative voters often missed in traditional polling, holds a B+ accuracy rating from FiveThirtyEight.
While Trump’s supporters are citing the poll as a sign that the American public is backing his second-term policies, including efforts to cut federal spending and reduce consumer prices, other polls tell a different story.
A May 20 report from Newsweek highlighted declining support for Trump, with major national polls—including those from NBC News, CNN/SSRS, CBS/YouGov, and Emerson College—showing his approval rating between 41% and 45%, and disapproval as high as 59%. Among independent voters, Trump reportedly remains underwater on issues like trade, immigration, and foreign policy.
Democrats have pushed the narrative that Trump voters are experiencing “buyer’s remorse” after the 2024 election. However, the Trafalgar numbers, along with select other polls, suggest that Trump’s base remains solidly behind him, and that he continues to gain support from voters who feel ignored by mainstream political discourse.
Still, polling averages from outlets like RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight show a tighter race, with Trump’s approval often below the 50% mark nationally.
The contrasting numbers reflect a polarized electorate and an increasingly fragmented polling landscape. As the 2026 midterms approach, both parties are watching closely to see whether Trump’s recent momentum can be sustained — or whether broader dissatisfaction will take center stage.
