A surprising new dynamic is taking shape in the early maneuvering for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. While Vice President JD Vance has long been seen as the natural heir to President Donald Trump’s MAGA movement, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is now quietly gaining momentum — and could prove to be Vance’s most formidable challenger.
According to CNN political analyst Eric Bradner, Rubio is enjoying a noticeable surge of interest among party activists and voters in early primary states, particularly in Iowa. Once a rival to Trump in the contentious 2016 primaries, Rubio has since reinvented himself as a trusted Trump ally, serving prominently in the current administration and positioning himself squarely within the MAGA camp.
“I was a little surprised during a recent visit to Iowa how frequently the name of Secretary of State Marco Rubio came up — often in the same breath as JD Vance,” Bradner said. “Both of them, despite their very public criticism of Trump in the past, are now viewed as team players who are fully aligned with the president and his administration.”
Rubio’s Advantage: Experience and Early-State Name Recognition
While Vance has the official stature of the vice presidency and Trump’s personal endorsement, he is still relatively new to the national political stage. Rubio, on the other hand, has run for president before, built a network in early primary states, and retains name recognition from his 2016 bid — when he finished third in Iowa in a competitive Republican field.
“A lot of these early-state Republican voters have met Rubio before,” Bradner noted. “They like Vance, but they don’t know him yet. They haven’t had the chance to go through the usual retail politics process with him.”
Rubio himself has so far deflected questions about his own presidential ambitions, publicly praising Vance’s potential instead.
“I think JD Vance would be a great nominee … if he decides to do that,” Rubio told Fox News. “He’s a close friend and I hope he intends to do it.”
The Trump Factor — and the Third-Term Question
While the 22nd Amendment bars Trump from serving more than two terms, the president has continued to tease the possibility of a return, even floating Trump 2028 merchandise and indulging speculation about potential legal loopholes. One theory circulating among Trump loyalists imagines Vance — or another Trump ally — winning the presidency in 2028 with Trump as running mate, then stepping aside to allow Trump to reclaim the Oval Office.
Republican Congressman Andy Ogles has even proposed legislation to amend the Constitution to allow a president to run for a third term if the first two were non-consecutive — a move that would directly benefit Trump while blocking other former presidents, like Barack Obama, from doing the same.
Trump himself remains coy.
“So many people want me to do it,” he said in May. “I’ve never had requests so strong as that. But to the best of my knowledge, you’re not allowed to do it.”
A Crowded Field Could Loom
Although Vance and Rubio appear to be the frontrunners for the MAGA succession, the Republican bench is deep. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is still viewed as a contender with a strong home-state base. Senator Ted Cruz could mount a campaign, as he did successfully in Iowa in 2016. And Trump himself has publicly mused about Donald Trump Jr. entering the race one day.
With Trump constitutionally barred from running again (at least for now), the 2028 race is shaping up to be less about replacing Trump than about inheriting his movement. The early jostling between Rubio and Vance underscores the reality that, even inside Trump’s own administration, the battle to lead MAGA in the post-Trump era has already begun.